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School closures do not have a significant effect on the spread of coronavirus, study finds
The paper found that “the evidence to support national closure of schools to combat COVID-19 is very weak”
Shutting schools across the country could in fact have “relatively small effect” on slowing the transmission of coronavirus, according to researchers at University College London (UCL), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Cambridge University and Sydney University.
Academics carried out a review of 16 previous studies on the impact of school closures during the Covid-19 so far, as well as during previous flu outbreaks including the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003 and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak which began in 2012.
The paper, published in The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health, found that:
“the evidence to support national closure of schools to combat COVID-19 is very weak and data from influenza outbreaks suggest that school closures could have relatively small effects on a virus with COVID-19's high transmissibility and apparent low clinical effect on school children. At the same time, these data also show that school closures can have profound economic and social consequences"
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The academic paper:
School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review
Russell M Viner et al.
Summary
In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, 107 countries had implemented national school closures by March 18, 2020. It is unknown whether school measures are effective in coronavirus outbreaks (eg, due to severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS], Middle East respiratory syndrome, or COVID-19). We undertook a systematic review by searching three electronic databases to identify what is known about the effectiveness of school closures and other school social distancing practices during coronavirus outbreaks. We included 16 of 616 identified articles. School closures were deployed rapidly across mainland China and Hong Kong for COVID-19. However, there are no data on the relative contribution of school closures to transmission control. Data from the SARS outbreak in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore suggest that school closures did not contribute to the control of the epidemic. Modelling studies of SARS produced conflicting results. Recent modelling studies of COVID-19 predict that school closures alone would prevent only 2–4% of deaths, much less than other social distancing interventions. Policy makers need to be aware of the equivocal evidence when considering school closures for COVID-19, and that combinations of social distancing measures should be considered. Other less disruptive social distancing interventions in schools require further consideration if restrictive social distancing policies are implemented for long periods.
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A New Great Depression for Higher Education?
Moody’s Investor Services and Fitch have proclaimed that the financial outlook for American higher education looks bad. Moody’s has given the sector negative ratings for most recent years, predicting low albeit positive tuition revenue growth. The COVID-19 pandemic, however, is the undoing of colleges, as it reeks havoc on many other businesses, families, and institutions as well.
I am not an expert on university cash reserve positions, but I know that for many schools it is very modest. Unanticipated sharp declines in revenue will force many universities into substantial deficit spending this year, in some cases completely wiping out cash balances. For universities with an already mediocre revenue trajectory (e.g, enrollment declines over the past decade), this could perhaps force them into bankruptcy or possibly a merger with somewhat stronger neighboring institutions. COVID-19 will accelerate much needed creative destruction of some American universities, reducing collegiate over-investment.
Why? Here are six reasons. First, enrollments have fallen for almost a decade already, and no one was predicting a month ago that they would rise next fall. Will they fall moderately or drastically? Huge numbers of students were sent home suddenly from college recently. Will they all come back? Unlikely.
Second, university cash reserves are plummeting rapidly, as many schools face refunding students at least some room and board charges as they are denied access to their dorm rooms and college cafeterias.
Third, state governments are rapidly moving from running budget surpluses and carrying large cash reserves to serious deficit spending, not permissible in the long run because of balanced budget constitutional restraints. State tax revenues will fall anywhere from moderately to disastrously, depending on the severity of the downturn induced by COVID-19 health containment measures. State government bailouts of the colleges will rank far lower on priority lists of politicians than, say, providing income to those suddenly unemployed. Maybe the Feds will give the colleges the $50 billion bailout they are asking for, but don’t count on it.
Fourth, even wealthy private universities are being clobbered by huge declines in their endowment assets. I would be shocked if Harvard, for example, has not already suffered paper losses of minimally $5 billion since the stock market downturn began, and who knows what has happened to the worth of trendy but risky “alternative investments” that rich schools love so much. Even at Harvard, $5 billion is real money (about $250,000 per student). Moreover, private donations and bequests are likely to shrink significantly for a while simply because of the reduced financial condition of alumni, friends, foundations, etc.
Fifth, in past crises institutions of higher education could count on tremendous support from the general public, people paying taxes which subsidize universities and making private donations and paying tuition charges. Colleges are going to pay a heavy price for the contempt they have shown in recent years towards American values—the First Amendment, a strict adherence to the rule of law, etc. Riots and rude treatment of visitors at places as geographically, economically and culturally diverse as Yale University, the University of Missouri and Evergreen State College have contributed to a sharp decline in positive public opinion towards higher education. Soaring tuition fees and examples of scandals, waste and corruption in athletics and elsewhere at schools like Penn State, Michigan State, and University of North Carolina, reduce prospects for a taxpayer bailout.
Sixth, a major modern day source of revenue for many universities has been international students, and some colleges have made a profit from study abroad programs (having kids pay tuition locally but getting educated at a lower cost overseas). That has taken at least a short run hit.
Americans are amazingly adaptable and good at facing and conquering crises. I hope this is no exception. We took huge sudden hits to college enrollments during World War II and colleges and the nation survived and even shortly thereafter flourished. While our past history can be informative and even comforting, its future replication is far from assured. We may even gain from experiences learned from COVID-19—the underrated utility of online instruction may be recognized, for example. Another: cash-desperate colleges may sell dorms and cafeterias, getting out of businesses irrelevant to Job One: creating and disseminating knowledge, wisdom and beauty.
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Don't worry about kids missing school, says Australian university boss
Sydney University vice-chancellor Michael Spence has urged parents not to worry about children missing school, saying the education system is adaptable and teachers would get children back on track when the COVID-19 crisis is over.
Dr Spence, who has eight children ranging in age from babies to adults, said families could have faith that Australian educators would be able to identify and fill gaps in children's learning when classroom teaching resumed.
Dr Michael Spence with his sons Theodore and Hugo
Dr Michael Spence with his sons Theodore and HugoCredit:Louise Kennerley
His comments come as parents - particularly those with children in primary school - say they have been overwhelmed with the stress of working from home, and fighting to hold onto vulnerable jobs, while supervising their children's lessons.
"I'm not saying education is not important, but I think we can act sometimes as if the education of a young person is a process of jumping through hoops, where every hoop has to be jumped through in the right order at the right height," Dr Spence told the Herald and The Age.
"The school system is really adaptable, and teachers are terrific professionals. When this all picks up again, part of what they are going to be doing is making sure people are back on the curve, in one way or another."
Dr Spence said schools had proven their adaptability by responding so quickly to the crisis.
"In a matter of weeks, the whole model for teaching in many schools was turned on its head, and teachers responded to that challenge," he said.
"I don't think the schools are expecting parents to become teachers. They are setting formal work, saying, 'Get through as much as you can, and trust us that, when it's all over, we will be able to sort things out.' "
Dr Spence said his children had attended many different types of schools, ranging from a British school that was threatened with closure by the government to tiny Christian schools, NSW state schools and expensive private schools.
As long as you talk to children about ideas, read to them and discuss what's going on in the world, "they find their own way", he said. Some children did not have access to those things at home, but "they are not the kids whose parents are anxious".
"The education system doesn't do a bad job of identifying those kids' educational needs, too."
Dr Spence said he was not worried about students entering first year university next year without the same level of teaching as their predecessors because of the disruption to learning, saying universities always had students with different levels of preparation.
"A big part of what we do in first year is identify where people have learning needs and learning strengths, and try to make sure that everybody is able to be brought on to a point where they are ready for the second year," he said.
"That's what educators do for a living."
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